Too Big a Problem?

It is kind of stormy right now and a bolt of lightning followed almost immediately by a loud thunder scared the Killer B (my large dog previously pictured) causing him jump back from the door.   Then he looked at me and laid back down as if nothing had happned.  I saw it B.  I saw it, so don't try to pretend it didn't happen.  

I had an ultrasound Friday to determine which benign condition I have, somewhat begging the question as to whether it was necessary at all.  I asked for the breakdown on the payment.  It was listed at $1,300, I paid $30, and my insurance paid $635.  In short, since I had insurance, the total cost of the procedure was just over 50% of the cost someone without insurance would pay. 

After coming down on the GOP in my last post, I thought I'd give it a break.  May be even poke at some Obama's obvious weaknesses.  It would be easier if the GOP hadn't continued on its morally vacuous and intellectually dishonest path.  It is tough to pick a favorite that occurred even in the last few days:

• Darrell Issa is running a 1990s era witch hunt aimed at Eric Holder predicated on the Fast and Furious program.  At most you can say Holder was incompetent for not knowing about it sooner and stopping if faster, but it was clearly a Bush team hold over.  Massive amounts of information are known about the program, Holder has testified at least 6 times on it, and some of things that Issa demanded were illegal for Holder to provide.  Bottom line:  Issa is a political hack.   It brings to mind impeaching Bill Clinton on the definition of the word "is," but it is even more embarrasing (though perhaps not a bigger abuse of power).
• Romney has yet to find many positions that he can articulate any details on:  this week it was immigration.  When asked three times in a row about whether he would reverse Obama's decision to not pursue deporting children who had been brought to this country as young children by their parents, Romney could not give a simple yes or no.  Romney is the ultimate wuss.
• Hannity, twice in one show, presented partial clips of Obama and Lawrence O'Donnell so that it appeared as if they were saying exactly the opposite of what they said - had you not cut the very sentence they were in the middle of.  Not so long ago they used Fox Friends to air they produced an obvious political ad attacking Obama and tried to pass it off as news.
• (Mostly the last couple of weeks) GOP voter suppression has been out in full force in Florida.  This is a pet peeve, because it so goes against the very concept of a democracy.  Once you win by removing the right to vote, you are not living in a democracy any more.
• (NC favorite from a couple of weeks ago) The NC GOP in control of the state government made it impossible to consider science when making decisions about shoreline development . . . why you may ask?   Because estimates of rising water levels are linked to global warming, and science must be ignored when it involves global warming.

The GOP continues to drag the country towards an abyss.

On the other hand, I am not convinced that Obama is up to addressing the problems facing us in terms of the debt and unemployment.  A Romney return to Bush era policies will be bad, but that doesn't mean Obama seems to be able to come to term with just how much has changed relating to jobs and the economy.  Bottom line, though, is that given the damage that ocurred from the banking crisis, world economic slowdown, burst of the US housing bubble, etc.  No one has any magic to make a quick turnaround for the US economy and, very importantly, the jobless rate.  There probably just are not short term solutions that support low employment rates.  Unfortunately, we never really get a seroius an comprehensive discussion about the deep nature of the problems facing the US and world economy?  Not really near enough.  It is, however, obvious that the 30 year GOP approach to supply-side economics isn't going to do anything but further sever the lifeline's constructed to help the poorest Americans (yes the poor are still Americans).  

Right Down a Hole

[A few typos were corrected 5/20/12]

The Right continues to prove it skill in playing politics - to the continued detriment of the country.  Having been alarmed by the policies of the Right for many years, it has been somewhat saddening to see the Right "winning" out.  The Democrats have always had a harder message to sell, but their inability to come to grips with the budget plays right into the Rights hands and has also been terribly detrimental to the country as well.  However, the path outlined by the Right will box us more and more into economic and social instability.

The Right's Violent Rhetoric Leads to Violence (Taking Stock of the Right's Foot Soldiers)

Ted Nugent got into trouble by alluding to his not being around if Obama got re-elected.  He was giving a wink-wink nod-nod to violence against the President and everyone knows it.  Nugent walked it back enough so the Secret Service would leave him alone, but lets not pretend it was anything else than a call for violence against Obama and more broadly liberals.  (Goldfinger rather nicely puts Nugent in perspective in their FTN song).

The anti-government anti-liberal call for violence has existed for decades on the Right and led to the Oklahoma bombing, other bombings, and murders.  The militia movement ebbs and flows, but never fully disappears.  The NRA constantly runs a campaign directly aimed at fueling paranoia among gun owners about their safety and access to ammunition and fire arms.  Their policies help keep guns in the hands of criminals and ensures any crackpot can buy the most lethal weapons out of the back of someone's car in the middle of the night.

Violence is typically endorsed softly by even mainstream GOP candidates with statements implying people are being driven to extremes by liberal policies.  For example, all the BS about Texas leaving the Union.  The 1993 movie Falling Down nicely captures this little bit of white violence fantasy but it has a rich history with the likes of Dirty Harry and a host of others.

What used to be at least frowned upon by serious Republicans is not even challenged by a presidential candidates.  Recently Mitt Romney couldn't even challenge a woman who claimed Obama was guilty of treason, instead he says he'd like to investigate it further.  The transparently absurd Birther movement was embraced by the likes of Donald Trump gives credence to extremist positions that lay the path to violence against the President - and the system in general - which has already included many deaths.  Compare this to 2008 when John McCain had the guts to make it clear that Obama was a Christian and a good man, and you can see just how far the Right continues to slide down a very dangerous slope.

The role of Rush, Fox, and the GOP echo box cannot be underplayed.  However, the MSM (main stream media) is so afraid of the Right that it feels obliged to embrace "evenness" in reporting these issues when the Right's positions are nothing but spin and denial of fact.  There is no truth in the Birther movement, the treason, and much of the BS the Right uses to foment and encourage violence and outrage.

This should make all of us afraid.  I can't count on my hands the number of gun owners who have found it necessary to spout off about how they'll use their guns if they need to.  Really?  You have to kill others because their civil rights threaten you?  Too often the answer is obviously yes.  Any sane person would find shooting targets in the image of Trayvon Martin deeply offense - if you don't you're a jack-ass - and if that makes you crazy reading that, you have the problem.

Trickle Down is a Broken Experiment (and Romney Plans to Push it Farther)

Under Reagan we were first formally introduced to the idea that if you give the rich more money and power, they would sprinkle the rest of the country with jobs and prosperity would blossom everywhere.  Their bounty would "trickle down" to the rest of the country.  Ways to give the rich more money is to give them money directly (by financing their industries directly), loosen regulations on their industries allowing them to make money in ways previously considered too risky (such as changing banking rules), and lower their taxes (directly to their personal taxes such as investment income or to their industries like tax exemptions to the oil industry).  The country has tried all of these with the net effect of ballooning deficits and taking us to a collapse of the financial system.

The Laffer Curve encapsulated the idea that by cutting taxes, the government would enjoy a greater benefit from the resulting increase in individual spending.  This concept has been soundly dismissed by history, at least of where the US exists.  But further cutting taxes, the government is not getting the same revenue it might otherwise at the higher tax rate.  Funding government is meaningful only to the extent that we to pay for it.  So, to the extent that we were suddenly had less government money to spend, we should have cut spending and laid out a path to consistent with that path.  The GOP policies of trickle down and tax cuts never came close to doing it (though for a brief time the elder Bush, Clinton, the GOP, and the internet/housing bubbles managed to briefly get us to a balanced budget).

G. W. Bush doubled down on the trickle down premise with the famous Bush Tax Cuts.  Bush's cuts, along with two unfunded wars, and massive increases in government spending blew budgets apart.
The undeniable evidence that trickle down does not benefit the middle and lower classes is measured by the enormous additional concentration of wealth in smaller and smaller percentage of people that has accelerated in parallel with the policy.  That we are weakening the US in other ways, is measured by the number of bridges needing repairs.

The economic challenges facing the US are a result of globalization, changes manufacturing, energy, and environmental.  Even without the loss of jobs to lower wages elsewhere, manufacturing jobs would have been disappearing in the US.  As the productivity levels of employees continues to get higher, you need fewer and fewer employees.  Alternatively, they will return as low wage jobs around the outside of the business.  Our ability to produce new jobs has been hampered by our continued pull back from education - and a policy geared towards concentrating wealth and power into fewer hands.  With globalization, corporate leaders have been able to piggy back on the education of other countries by employing people abroad.  The off-shoring of technical jobs can only be offset by making sure we develop the best technical people here - in part pushed by the government investing in education.

Romney and the GOP are preparing to further aggravate this problem with even more tax cuts to the richest.  In essence doubling down on a failed policy in a way which will only further push the US into debt at the same time weakening the US further.

Make no mistakes about it, the US is still a powerhouse and can be a bigger, stronger, more inclusive economy - but not with Romey, Trickle Down, and policies that actively work against building a infrastructure for the future and protecting the potential for a middle class.

The Republican Tax Cuts and the Debt, Deregulation and the Banking Crisis 

Republican's have a 30 year history of pursuing policies that have dramatically added to the inability of the Federal government to pay for its mandated programs and regulate unsafe business practices.  At the same time Bush dramatically expanded the size of government and started two unfunded wars.  Predictably and predictable enough for a 18 year-old college student accurately forsee during the beginning of Reagan's Presidency, the government has, largely been running deficits and adding to the public debt. 

When we look at the past and the near future, the primary reason for the deficits are Republican tax cuts.  (I agree calling them the Bush Tax cuts actually lets the GOP off the hook).   The future will require cuts in social spending and should include cuts in military spending, but cuts required to pay for additional tax cuts and cuts relating to the Republican Tax cuts from the Bush budget are all poor investments.  Tax cuts funded by deficits offer a poor return on the dollar as opposed to spending on infrastructure and wider support of things like unemployment.  At least as important, the cuts will actually make the deficits worse and debt larger faster.  (The Ryan budget plans to make up for it with unspecified (magical) cuts). 

On a macro scale, the GOP is largely responsible for the current US debt.  The next are unfunded wars.  The next is the bailout of the banking system generated as a result of deregulation.

On a micro scale, the GOP can be right about selectively higher taxes.  For instance, if we want to reduce smoking, we put taxes on cigarrettes.  Part of the funding of Obamacare comes from a huge additional tax of the medical device industry.  This is going to negatively affect and industry that continues to innovate and will undoubtedly cost many jobs in the US.  Selectively targetting industries that are key to the US for big additional taxes doesn't make sense.  However, it doesn't make sense to give huge tax breaks to oil companies that they are not going to pass on as lower costs at the pump.

Until the GOP argues that we would be better off with NO government, we will need taxes.  Even they are not willing to go there.  So, lets not pretend that we can eliminate taxes all together. 

The GOP would have credibility, if they cut the budget at the same time they cut taxes but made the tax cuts contingent upon the cuts in spending.  Then the US could engage on a debate on what services they really to have.  We could then figure out what spending cuts people would have want to pay for the tax cuts. 

Reagan and every candidate since they has been a panderer to a group that doesn't want to pay taxes at all for anything (in particularly to help people they don't like).  They were more than happy to hear that tax cuts magically wouldn't cause deficits and increase the debt.  They want to believe that the magic solution is to eliminate education and cut support for poor Americans (who are poor completely as a result of their own actions).  They want to believe that the rich will magically give them great jobs, even though business will happily take the jobs to where they are cheapest. 

Reagan did not have any magic and the Tea Party folk do not have any either.  Their policies have made America worse and less capable to deal with real solutions.

The GOP has put the country at risk and is preparing to make it even worse.

The economy is extremely slow to recover from what was a virtual collapse of the financial markets brought on largely by deregulation and greed.  JP Morgan just lost $2 billion on a single series of trades, pursuing big profits at high risk.  This behaviour is fueled by greed.  However, Republicans continue to howl about government intrusion and rules.  Unbridled greed nearly destroyed our financial system, without regulation it will repeat it over and over again.  Regulation is the lesson learned from history.

Nothing the GOP proposes would dramatically (magically) make a ton more jobs.  Not much Obama can do would make that happen - though stimulus helps.  The bottom line is the economy of the 1950s and 1960s will never return - because of computers, products we buy, and production methods.  We now live in a international economy - our government needs to be run to that end - the government the GOP envisions can't do it.

The Right Has Deliberately Undermined the Presidency Weakening the United States

A two party system can be broken when one of the parties ceases to engage in compromise.  The GOP is in the hands of extremists.  Extremists willing to bring the country to the brink of defaulting on its debt.  The GOP tried to impeach the President of the United States on charges tangential to government derived from a politically motivated witch hunt.  The GOP made not solving the problems of the country and blocking as many moves to help the economy as possible with the sole goal of making it hard for Obama to win a second term.  Rewarding them with any more power is called enabling.

The country is weaker today as a result.

The Right Undermines the Vote

For the last twelve years, the GOP has made a concerted effort undermine the validity of the vote in the US.  All of the actions are caged in protecting the integrity of the vote against a tiny and unproven worry about voter fraud.  This involves people falsely representing themselves in order to vote.  It is absurd to think that enough people could make it to the polls and vote enough times to swing any election larger than the school board election in a village.  All of the actions are intended to make it harder for the poor and those with fewer resources to vote.  Since this is disporportionately minority, the GOP thinks they will benefit from the activity.

The vote with the greatest integrity includes the higher proportion of legitimate votes that it can.  The GOP flies completely in the face of integrity.  Not that we should be remotely surprised.

Taking us Right Down the Hole (and a vote for the GOP makes you part of it) 

The GOP has encouraged violence, suppressed the vote, created deficits, attacked the weakest, and divided the country.  The GOP and Right are literally dragging the US down a dark pit of Right Wing extremism.  We are at peril.

The United States has been harmed on multiple fronts by Republican Party that has evolved of the last 30 years.  It will get worse before it gets better, because like a drunk that never thinks his drinking is the problem, the Right are just going to keep hitting their koolaid heavier and harder until they crash.  Hopefully we'll be able to come out the otherside intact.  We might not.  If we do it will be a long time recovering.

One thing is clear after the last 4 years ... the GOP is less deserving than ever of a seat at the table.

I thought after the Bush era was over, the GOP would come to its senses.  It just accelerated and escalated.

Please do not, whatever you do, vote Republican in anything higher than a local election.  My kids need a better world.

Post Mortem

I had planned to touch on some other items for this post, but I am kind of tired of it.  But simply, the US was formed on the concept of equal rights of the people to have access to the law in order to pursue their lives.  Excluding a class of individuals from sharing those rights goes against the very basis and soul of the country.   Companies like Bain Capital make their money by either buying below price and liquidating companies or stripping out middle management, borrowing, and pumping the company up so they can take their money out.  These guys are not the John Galt or Hal Reardon of Ayn Rand, they are simply guys making as much money for themselves as they can.  They do not create products or jobs - except by chance in the process.  Why does giving these guys extra tax benefits serve society?  (That is a rhetorical question - it doesn't).  I had planned on touching the Right's war on education:  be it science, education funding, or public education.  Why bother, you know and they don't care.

I had planned to detail some of Obama's real failings.  He has not been a perfect President and his inability to work with even Democrats is emblematic of some of his problems.  I was going to discuss the Democrats inability to talk about the cuts necessary to get the budget under control, even if the Republican (Bush) Tax cuts are removed.  The Democrats are in trouble in this election very much as a result of their failing to offer serious ideas on the deficit and spending.  But I would not want to create anything that implies Obama or Democrats are the real danger to my children that the GOP is.

The danger from the Right is real.  Starting registering voters and start working to a government of (all of) the people that is for the people (if you hadn't already started a long time ago).

A Worthy Link

Go take a look a the Reality Carnival, it is worthy of a being saved as a favorite for occasional look.

Blogging Gap

Blogging Gap

I sort of let things slide here because I've been in the midst of a end-of-year school/work/sports blitz.  My daughter's HS lacrosse team (ECHHS Wildcats) advanced to the state semi-finals this week, so they'll have at least one more game.  The Wildcats are ranked 5th in the state coming into the playoffs - so far they have been the #3 and #4 teams to advance - but to win it will require beating the #1 and likely #2 teams.  If they manage to do that - they will deserve the title.

A useful link, family sports

Taxmageddon nicely highlights how solving the deficit spending issue is going to require sacrifices neither party can own up to.  Of course, the fiscal crisis resulting the from 2008 bank crisis called for deficit spending.  However, everything before that going back to the beginning of Reagan's budget busting tax rollsbacks, short of some 9/11 spending, were deficits of choice that came from irresponsible taxation/spending policies.
Generally silliness has been a recent theme: 

• Allen West, R FL, claimed there were about 78 to 81 communists in the Democratic party in Congress.  Suggesting that either the long departed McCarthy still has work to do or we're witnessing another Batshit-Crazy-Republican (BCR) moment inspired by too much Rush, Hannity, and Savage.  (Michael Savage is a secret favorite because for every 10 minutes of air time, he spends 9 minutes telling you he told you so.  He seems to hold the GOP mainstream in great contempt as well.  Actually he might hold everyone in great contempt.).  Clearly it was BCR moment barely met by commenta by Fox to CNN, because everyone knows that the GOP isn't expected to live in reality any more.
• Two weeks past it's peak, BCR Joe Arpaio's 12-months too late investigation into Obama's birth certificate was met only by silence in the GOP media for the most par.  Apparently Joe was so disconnected that he failed to realize "pressure" from Donald Trump has solved this mystery quite some time ago.  Donald triumphantly returned to Celebrity Apprentice which is a bit more than halfway through the current season. 
• Meanwhile, the Romney thought they had a seminal moment in their campaign with a part-time TV pundit and Democratic operative said Ann Romney had never worked a day in her life.  Ann was quickly rolled onto Fox to express her outrage.  The story generated as much sizzle as glass of recently poured soda.  The backlash may get worse, but when Mary Matilin finds the worst angle on the story that the Obama administration condemned the comments rather than stick up for Hilary Rosen, you know this isn't a hardly a seminal moment.  Mary, what should Obama has said? 

Bottom line:  Gender gap exists because the GOP position is that imposing restraints on access to birth control is a requirement of religious freedom.   OK, I now know that the attack on birth control is really a move on the part of the GOP to soften the defenses against attacks on access to abortions by moving the bar.  The idea being that women will give more on abortion in order to preserve more access to birth control.  It seems a bit of genius if hadn't backfired so thoroughly, however this kind of tactic has worked beautifully for the GOP over and over again.

In tune with happier times to come, Michigan, Alabama, and host of other schools held their spring football scrimmages.  Michigan's took place in the Big House to be followed by the U of M's first varsity lacrosse game against OSU.  Hoke's comments on the game can be found here.  OSU beat Michigan 12-9 with Michigan probably exceeding expectations.

The girls sporting events aren't quite over.  Thursday the youngest scored 2 goals and had several assists in a Middle School shellacking (11-0) of a county team, however her club team lost 2-1 in an important game (on a relative level) on Friday.  If they win today against the top team, they will win a share of the title for their division.  My HS student's team lost twice at the Legacy Tournament in Georgia, but she scored 2 goals and had 2 assists in the first of the games. 

Travels and Travails, a Deficit of Solutions

It has been quite a while since I have posted ... no doubt my two readers missed me deeply.

Travels and Travails

First, the dental travails:  I have an abscess that will end up costing me $2,000 in imaging and surgery to remove the abscess and fill the root.  I am experiencing mild discomfort most of the time, unless I bit down on something hard - then it is a bit more electrifying.  Since I've already had a root canal and crown on the tooth, I hate to have it pulled.  Also I already have a missing tooth on the opposing side which I am trying so I have a total no sides of my mouth that I can chew on.  I have another cracked molar and I am waiting on an implant.   All told this stuff will run me close $10,000.  

Second, I've been busy both working and playing.  Work has slowed down, but at least we managed to catch up some in the first quarter.  I played some of Mass Effect 3 - but I have not made it to the end - which is supposed to be stunningly bad.  We went to the Bahamas and stayed at the Atlantis resort.  The lazy river ride is highly recommended and it is the most expensive family resort I hope to ever go to.  Reduce the price by 33.3% and I think I'd be great with it, but ridiculous prices for food mean I'll probably never return.  There were huge yachts in the bay when we there:  Mi Sueno and Blue Moon were a couple, but there were quite a few.  Have no fear, I didn't get dloser than looking at them. 

Third, my girls are playing in lots of sporting events, so I am trying to attend as many as I can.

Politica

The political world has matured in a rather depressing way.  I think I am ready to start hoarding some cash in gold or different currencies.  There is a paucity of realism about the budget deficit which requires both raising revenue and cutting spending in numerous areas. 

On taxes, Obama is at least attempting to raise more revenue, if only in a relatively ineffective way.  Let's at least quickly dismss GOP argument that raising more revenue won't help the deficit because the Buffet Rule or rolling back the Bush tax cuts on the highest wage earners won't balance the budget.  Of course, it won't balance it, but raising revenue will reduce the deficit (unless you just spend that much more) because you have more revenue.  This concept is as idiotic as saying that producing more oil and gas in the US can't drive down energy prices because the world demand will use it up.  Sure - it won't create cheap gas - but having a greater supply will decrease it a bit.  (Proving liberals and conservatives will sometimes say just the stupidest stuff to suit their crazy biases).  But, Obama, where are the cuts?  One of the biggest areas Obama was looking to cut was health costs through the mandate and a centralized committee to dictate treatments and objective performance evaluations of therapies.  Let's call those imaginary cuts and likely inadeqauate though conceivable.

The GOP/Romney/Ryan budget certainly goes after some social programs while adding to military spending.  Sadly, it calls for significant revenue reduction.  Ryan calls for magical spending cuts in discetionary spending other than the military.  It is magical because none of it is specified, but it requires huge reductions in that spending.  Close you eyes and think of any time starting with Reagan when such spending was reduced (keep dreaming).  Take away the magical spending cuts and the Ryan budget continues to blow stuff away.

We have no path to the compromises that need to happen to make serious progress:  a willingness to raise revenue (its going to require raising taxes) combined with a willingness to make real cuts in (social and military) spending (not just centralizing health care). Some of the medicare stuff seems like a no brainer:  why did the government buy my Dad a mutliple thousand dollar wheel chair and powered wheel chair.  There were less expensive but functional models that could have been paid for AND then he could have paid for nicer ones if he wanted to.  Does this mean that all seniors have the same choices:  no.  But it does mean that all seniors have an option.  The Democrats need to take us there before we get more extreme plans. 

Final Thought

Sanctorum probably did his damage to Romney, but in the end, it was largely self inflicted.  When Romney used $100M of mostly negative advertising to torch is conservative opponents, he was alienating the hardcore base.   Combine that with an election year attempt to set women's rights back to the 1950s and ban birth control and the GOP has dug itself a pretty big hole. 

Hope that the Tea Party goes away and lets us have an older Bush Republican and Democrats get serious on cutting spending remains very slim.



 

Guns, Trayvon Martin, and Testosterone

The death of Trayvon Martin sounds very much like a murder.  If Zimmeran followed Martin and confronted him in any way, then Zimmerman provoked a confrontation and he can't hide behind a "stand your ground" law.  A hoodie and being african american isn't probable cause for anything.  It will be murder and quite possibly a hate crime.

The case now has the proper attention it deserves.  It will get the investigation it deserves.  If it turns out that the details we have heard turn out to be true, then some real house cleaning needs to take place, not just in Sandford but needs a discussion about the neglect of justice on a broader scale.  The belief in equality and fairness has been in retreat for some time, and the Martin case may well be a brick in that wall.

We all probably know people that have concealed gun permits (well at least I do, and I live in NC).  Other people I know have a gun ready at their house. Most of these people live in the country where, if you were to call the authorities, they would not arrive for a long time.  I fully understand that and, if I lived there, I would do the same thing.  Those people don't advertise it.  

If you live in the area I do, the dangerous areas are pretty clear and most people are very secure. Extreme crimes do occurr (Google Eve Carson), but not in public areas we circulate in.  Still, I know a guy that carries a gun.  This guy makes a point of telling people about it and makes a point of regularly broadcasting how no one better mess with him.  I avoid this guy for a couple of reasons:  blow-hards are really boring and annoying, and he represents an unnecessary danger.  A constant sabre rattling of what he is going to do if anyone gives him trouble is the kind of thing males typically do in High School.  It is testosterone fueled teenage bravado - which can be dangerous in High School - but give that same arrested personality a handgun and they immediately become a potentially source of an immediate and painful death.   Yes, the risk is remote, but so are many other risks that I don't engage because I have no reason to engage in.  Yes, some of the guys attracted to guns and probably the last people you'd like to have carrry a gun.

Guns have their place for personal defense, but guns are extremely potent weapons that can kill by-standers (I've never gotten a stray punch from a fist-fight except when I stepped in to break on up).  For that reason, crimes involving guns need to be tried aggressively and "stand your ground" defenses need to be treated with a critical light. 

The biggest issue is going to be the role of race in the Trayvon Martin case, but a gun likely moved the crime from an assaul to murder.